Portland Trail Blazers received guard Ja Morant from Memphis Grizzlies

Portland is staring down a significant overpay in acquiring Ja Morant at a $39.4M average annual value on a three-year, $126.5M deal with $81.6M guaranteed. For a two-time All-Star point guard entering his prime, that salary bracket ordinarily signals franchise-caliber talent locked into a championship window, but the question here isn't whether Morant *was* elite—it's whether this contract reflects his current and near-term market value given the durability questions that have dogged his career. The guarantees are substantial, and the AAV places him in the upper-middle tier of NBA salaries, a commitment that assumes consistent 35+ game availability and All-Star-caliber production; if either falters, Portland is anchored to dead money with limited flexibility. On the surface, adding a playmaking guard to a 42-win roster that just squeaked into the seven seed could make sense competitively, but the financial structure—three years fully committed—gambles heavily on health and performance sustainability in a deal that doesn't appear to offer much upside cushion for a team that may already be stretched thin elsewhere. The offseason timing and media narrative around "winners and losers" suggests Portland believes this transforms their ceiling, yet the contract mechanics tell a story of overpaying for optionality rather than securing a discount that would justify this level of salary commitment. This earns an F Contract Value Index (CVI) because the risk-to-reward ratio is skewed: the guaranteed dollars and AAV don't align with the proven, injury-adjusted earning power of the player you're adding.