
#27 SP · Phillies
Height
6'2"
Weight
200 lbs
Age
33
College
LSU
Draft
2014, Rd 1, #7
Experience
11 yrs
Bats/Throws
R/R
Grade Aaron Nola
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On the field, Aaron Nola grades out as a middling SP for Phillies (C+ Performance). That places him 140th of 252 graded starting pitchers. The contract is harder to defend: the Contract Value Index calls it a slight overpay (D+), with the cost outrunning the output. The public read is positive (B+ Sentiment), drawn from current news and social signal rather than the box score. With 11+ seasons of track record, these grades rest on a deep sample.
| Year | Team | GP | ERA | W-L | K | WHIP | IP | SV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Career | ![]() | 296 | 3.8897874 | 112-93 | 1932 | 1.15836 | 0.0 | 0 |
| 2026 | ![]() | 12 | 5.55 | 3-4 | 64 | 1.39 | 61.2 | 0 |
| 2025 |
Length
7 years
Total Value
$172.0M
Guaranteed
$103.2M
AAV
$24.6M/yr
Among starting pitcher contracts at this AAV tier, Aaron Nola grades a D+ Contract Value Index. At $24.6M annually over seven years, Nola's deal represents a significant long-term commitment for a 32-year-old established veteran whose recent on-field production simply does not justify the outlay—his C+ performance grade reflects a pitcher caught between moments of genuine stuff (his season debut produced seven strikeouts) and the resurfacing of mechanical issues that have defined much of his tenure. For a pitcher at his salary level and career stage, you're buying proven consistency and ace-adjacent production; instead, the Phillies are getting an inconsistent veteran whose upside flashes remain real but increasingly unreliable. The media consensus and fan sentiment have swung cautiously optimistic lately—up to a B+—but that goodwill is borrowed against a few encouraging performances and his World Baseball Classic experience representing Italy, not earned through sustained excellence on the mound. The Phillies' recent roster activity (adding multiple arms across relief and position player depth) signals that the front office recognizes it cannot rely solely on Nola to anchor the rotation, which paradoxically heightens the pressure on him to justify a significant contract in a competitive window where even small performance drops matter; with 124 days remaining in the regular season and the club sitting outside the playoff picture at 27-27, Nola faces a make-or-break stretch where another mechanical regression would snap the current positive narrative and expose this deal as an albatross.
Other same-position deals the Contract Value Index also places in the D band — a quick read on where Aaron's contract sits relative to comparable money.
Aaron Nola ranks 140th of 252 graded starting pitchers by performance. That slots Aaron between Cam Schlittler (C+) just ahead and Jameson Taillon (C+) just behind.
Graded higher
Cam SchlittlerYankeesC+LaZaro EstradaBlue JaysC+Hunter DobbinsCardinalsC+Graded lower
Jameson Taillon| Date | OPP | Result | AB | H | R | HR | RBI | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 6/7 | vs CHW | W 9-5 | - | - | - | 0 | - | - | - |
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Aaron Nola is a veteran in his 11th MLB season listed at SP for the Phillies. FanVerdicts covers every MLB player, team, GM, and transaction — and puts your verdict on all of it. Sign in to cast your Fan Verdict on Aaron Nola, see where the crowd lands, and argue the call. FanVerdicts also brings its own read — performance, sentiment, and Contract Value Index — as one honest input alongside the crowd's. Where FanVerdicts has weighed in so far: Contract Value Index D+, Performance C+, Sentiment B+.
The crowd's Fan Verdict moves in real time as fans vote on this profile. FanVerdicts' own read updates as new data lands — performance recalculates when MLB game stats post, sentiment shifts with media coverage and fan discussion, and the Contract Value Index recomputes when contract terms change. Contract details below show the structure (years, total value, average annual value, guarantees) behind the Contract Value Index read.
For league-wide context, the MLB hub has team rankings, GM report cards, the transactions feed, and live scoreboards. The MLB player rankings page sorts every active player by performance and contract value within their position.
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| 17 |
| 6.01 |
| 5-10 |
| 97 |
| 1.35 |
| 94.1 |
| 0 |
| 2024 | ![]() | 33 | 3.57 | 14-8 | 197 | 1.20 | 199.1 | 0 |
| 2023 | ![]() | 32 | 4.46 | 12-9 | 202 | 1.15 | 193.2 | 0 |
| 2022 | ![]() | 32 | 3.25 | 11-13 | 235 | 0.96 | 205.0 | 0 |
| 2021 | ![]() | 32 | 4.63 | 9-9 | 223 | 1.13 | 180.2 | 0 |
| 2020 | ![]() | 12 | 3.28 | 5-5 | 96 | 1.08 | 71.1 | 0 |
| 2019 | ![]() | 34 | 3.87 | 12-7 | 229 | 1.27 | 202.1 | 0 |
| 2018 | ![]() | 33 | 2.37 | 17-6 | 224 | 0.97 | 212.1 | 0 |
| 2017 | ![]() | 27 | 3.54 | 12-11 | 184 | 1.21 | 168.0 | 0 |
| 2016 | ![]() | 20 | 4.78 | 6-9 | 121 | 1.31 | 111.0 | 0 |
| 2015 | ![]() | 13 | 3.59 | 6-2 | 68 | 1.20 | 77.2 | 0 |
Aaron Nola's WAR-tier baseline and counting stats together earn a C+ performance grade. Through 12 games in the 2026 season, he's posted 3 wins and 64 strikeouts, numbers that reflect a pitcher caught between flashes of competence and persistent mechanical concerns that continue to undermine his consistency. His strikeout rate remains a genuine strength — the seven-strikeout outing against opposing hitters in his season debut demonstrated the stuff is still present when his delivery clicks — but the win-loss record and overall inability to string together dominant stretches is the central problem. At 33 years old with 12 seasons in the majors, Nola is an established veteran who should be anchoring a rotation, not a question mark; yet his current role appears to be exactly that as the Phillies have aggressively added depth around him (Jackson Rutledge, Kyle Backhus, Zach Pop) in recent weeks, a clear signal the front office is hedging against further decline. The media consensus is pointed: old issues are resurfacing, and while his World Baseball Classic participation and encouraging early-season moments generated goodwill, that sentiment is borrowed, not earned. With 107 days left in the regular season and the Phillies sitting outside the playoff picture at 37-31, Nola is one prolonged slump away from that fragile narrative reversing entirely — the organization's confidence in him is visibly eroding even as fan and media perception has stabilized.
Aaron Nola's public perception has stabilized into cautiously optimistic territory over the last two weeks, a notable recovery for a pitcher whose narrative had been trending in a concerning direction. The core of the media conversation remains focused on familiar, persistent issues resurfacing in his game — a troubling pattern for an established veteran entering what should be a prime leadership year in a Phillies rotation that just added Zack Wheeler and Jhoan Duran through recent roster moves. That said, his season debut generated genuine buzz, as seven strikeouts against opposing hitters reminded observers that the upside is still there when his stuff clicks, and his participation representing Italy at the World Baseball Classic added a rare humanizing storyline to an otherwise scrutinized offseason arc. The disconnect between his sentiment grade trending sharply upward and his C+ performance grade is real and worth noting — fan and media goodwill is currently outpacing what he's actually delivered on the mound, which means the goodwill is borrowed, not earned. With the Phillies sitting at 16-20 and outside the playoff picture in the NL East, the front office has clearly moved to fortify the pitching staff around him, which paradoxically raises both the floor of the rotation and the pressure on Nola to justify a significant contract rather than coast on organizational depth. The bottom line: the narrative has swung positive on the strength of a few encouraging moments and some compelling off-field color, but with 143 days left in the regular season and legitimate concerns about whether old mechanical issues are back, Nola is one bad stretch away from the conversation turning hard again.
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