Javon Kinlaw

Career StatsC

Year	Team	GP	Sacks	Tkl	TFL
Career		75	9.5	153	22
2025		17	0.0	43	10.5
2024		17	4.5	40	8
2023		17	3.5

Current Contract

Contract Value Index (CVI)

This Javon Kinlaw deal screams significant overpay for a defensive tackle who's struggled to live up to his first-round pedigree, earning a D+ CVI that reflects serious concerns about value and durability. At $15M AAV over three years with $30M guaranteed, some team is betting heavily on potential rather than production from a player who's been more serviceable starter than difference-maker during his injury-plagued early career. The 26-year-old former South Carolina standout should theoretically be entering his prime years, but persistent knee issues and inconsistent pass rush production make this a risky investment for a player who hasn't proven he can stay healthy or consistently impact games. The hefty guaranteed money ($30M of $45M total) only amplifies the risk, as the signing team will be on the hook for big dollars even if Kinlaw's injury concerns persist or his performance doesn't justify starter money. This contract feels like a franchise gambling on athletic upside and hoping a change of scenery unlocks the player San Francisco thought they were getting when they drafted him 14th overall, but the price tag suggests desperation rather than sound roster building.

Performance Analysis

Javon Kinlaw enters free agency as a former first-round pick whose six-year, 75-game career has been defined more by potential than consistency. The 28-year-old interior disruptor carries a C overall grade, reflecting a career that has oscillated between flashes of dominance and prolonged absences due to injury. He remains a high-upside reclamation project for any team needing interior depth. His current-season TFL rate of 0.62 per game nearly matches the elite threshold of 0.65, signaling genuine penetration ability when healthy and motivated. His tackles-per-game clip of 2.53 modestly outpaces the NFL average of 2.30, suggesting solid positional reliability. The concern lies in durability and motor consistency — Kinlaw has rarely strung together sustained high-level performances across a full season. His season trend tells the real story: after a dismal F in 2023, he rebounded to a C in 2024 and has climbed to a B in 2025, showing meaningful upward momentum entering free agency. That trajectory draws fair comparisons to players like Sheldon Richardson mid-career — capable of near-elite pass rush bursts without ever becoming a true cornerstone. If a team invests in a short-term, incentive-laden deal, Kinlaw's best football may still be ahead of him.

Current Sentiment

Javon Kinlaw enters free agency with a C- public perception that reflects significant skepticism about his value proposition as an interior pass rusher. The media narrative surrounding Kinlaw has been overwhelmingly negative since his Washington Commanders signing, with analysts consistently framing his previous contract as a front office miscalculation that failed to account for his modest career production of just 9.5 sacks across six seasons. Multiple outlets have positioned him as a cautionary tale about overpaying for potential rather than proven performance, creating a public perception that sits well below what his previous contract figure suggested about his market value. However, there's an emerging counter-narrative that external criticism may have rekindled his competitive fire, though this remains speculative rather than substantiated by on-field results. The prevailing media sentiment continues to question whether any team should invest significant resources in a player whose career trajectory hasn't matched the expectations that typically accompany franchise-caliber defensive tackle contracts. Kinlaw faces an uphill battle to rehabilitate his standing among scouts and analysts who view him as a replacement-level contributor despite his previous team's financial commitment.